NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) indicates between 0.33 and 0.50 of an inch of rainfall through the end of February. Little rain is expected into the first week of March.
So far, the Santa Maria Airport has recorded 0.24 of an inch of rain this month. Historically, it records 2.85 inches for February. Let's hope this forecast is incorrect. Not only has it been mostly dry, but it's also been colder than usual. In fact, the temperature has averaged 49.5 degrees as of Feb. 17; usually, it is 53.8 degrees for this month at the airport.Â
High pressure over the Great Basin will continue to produce gusty Santa Lucia (northeasterly/offshore) winds through Monday morning. This offshore flow will produce mostly clear skies with cool mornings and mild afternoons; however, an upper-level high off the Central Coast will create scattered mid to high-level clouds.
Highs this weekend will reach the mid-60s, with lows lowering to the mid-30s in the inland valleys (Santa Ynez) and low-40s in the coastal valleys (Santa Maria and Lompoc) on Wednesday morning.
The winds will shift out of the northwest (onshore) by Monday afternoon, allowing the marine layer areas of fog and mist to develop along the coastline and surge inland Monday night into Tuesday morning.Â
An upper-level low-pressure system from Canada will travel southward through the state of California and will produce scattered rain showers on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with snow levels dropping to 3,000 feet.
Total rainfall amounts should range between 0.10 and 0.25 of an inch. This low-pressure system will also create a steep pressure gradient along the California coastline, generating moderate gale-force to fresh gale-force (32 to 46 mph with gusts to 55 mph), northwesterly winds, and cooler temperatures on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
The winds will decrease to moderate to fresh (13 to 24 mph) levels on Thursday into Friday, allowing areas of low marine clouds to develop along the coastline.
The next change for rain will be on February 27-28.
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
40/64 39/68 40/66 40/61 39/53 38/55 40/57 42/58
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
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34/66 37/66 39/67 39/63 35/54 30/52 33/56 40/57
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
37/63 36/65 41/63 43/60 42/54 37/52 41/58 43/59
Seawater temperatures will range between 51 and 53 degrees through Monday, decreasing to 49 to 52 degrees on Tuesday and will remain at this level through Friday.
A 4- to 6-foot northwesterly (290-degree, deep-water) swell (with an 8- to 16-second period) is expected along our coastline on Saturday through Tuesday morning.
Increasing northwesterly winds off the California coastline will generate an 11- to 13-foot northwesterly (310-degree, deep-water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 12-second period) on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly swell (with an 8- to 11-second period) will arrive along our coastline on Thursday, decreasing to 4- to 6-feet on Friday.
This Date in Weather History (Feb. 18):
1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)
1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five-day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)
John Lindsey’s is a retired PG&E’s Diablo Canyon marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.
