The worst of the recession is past for San Luis Obispo County, but a return to normal growth will be slow and probably won't begin until the end of 2010, according to an economic forecast released today.

Beacon Economics, a group of researchers and advisors, prepared the forecast for 2010 through 2013 for the UCSB Economic Forecast Project.

"Although the region's economy faces significant pressures, ultimately, 2010 looks like the beginning of a return to growth for the county of San Luis Obispo," economist Brad Kemp said in his forecast.

Most of the decline in home prices has already taken place, but foreclosures will continue, along with a continuing slide in home prices, according to the report.

More small businesses are expected to go bankrupt, particularly those that can't obtain financing in the current tight credit market.

Nonfarm employment also is predicted to continue its decline through the second quarter of 2010, the forecast says.

But there are some bright spots: Unemployment is expected to peak during the fourth quarter of 2009 at 9.3 percent, and more jobs are expected in the construction industry from new developments already springing up.

Personal income, which has declined since 2008, is expected to begin rising again in 2010, which is expected to increase consumer spending.

That will help with the economic recovery, which will be driven by consumer spending, primarily in real estate, retail sales and tourism.